Rats

We would like to welcome our readers back to the blog after the Christmas holidays. We hope it was a time to value the presence of your loved ones as well as a gruelling and torturous marathon of delicious treats for the body.

We’re in 2014. That means that this year, in May, Maddie can be declared officially dead. If an application for a declaration is made as it will be 7 years that she’s been missing.

We don't think there will be a need for such an application. We anticipate that Maddie will be considered, officially, dead before May 2014.


Via her parents being charged.

We think the charges will be manslaughter, illegal disposal of body and continued obstruction of justice. Can’t be more official than that.

During our holidays, we kept monitoring things and watched attentively all stokes and pokes on the Maddie Affair fire to keep it alive.

As we have said before, nothing is random in this affair, even the most apparently ridiculous poke had a meaning, a message. 

The McCann v Amaral trial is becoming a neverending story. However, we think the timelines are deeply interlinked with the randomness, which we're sure is driving many crazy, of the Portuguese Justice System.

The Maddie Affair became, as we have shown in our conversations with Fred posts, a game. A cat and mouse game.

The cat first attempted to pounce on the rats immediately after Maddie’s body was disposed of. He was really enthusiastic going about it. The cat even used dogs.

But was forced to change his mind in September 2007. Without a body, the deed couldn't be contained only to the targeted rats.

These rats never knew what had almost befallen on them. They were indeed frightened but completely mistook from where the real threat came from. It wasn't from Portugal, the Portuguese Justice System or even the PJ.

In May 2011 the cat, after a long period retracting his claws and waiting for an opportunity, decided to pounce, openly and decisively.

This was proved to be completely mistimed, disastrously so.

But the game, like the show, had to go on.

As of the beginning of last year (with the 6-cleaner news) it seems the cat has decided for closure on this case.

We have followed the game attentively and have provided our opinions along the way.

While we were on our Christmas break we noted four things.

The first was the cat saying it was paying particular attention to phone records between 21.00 – 22.00 May 3 2007. This for us is clearly a message saying “We have phone records of calls between people who were supposed to be sitting next to, or very near, each other”.

The second was the Sunday Times apology. Very important move by the cat. First, because of the “seriousness” of the medium used. Second, because it says two things: “We have revised very attentively all we wrote” and “we confirm ALL we wrote except that we were wrong about the McCanns being the solely responsible for the 2008 e-fits to be only made public in October 2013, isn’t that so, Leicestershire Constabulary? Please note we CONFIRM all the rest.”.

At least we got to know that Leicester Police is on the “rat” side of things. Not a big surprise there.

The third is the 3 burglars, a rehashed story, now minus the gypsies, after a series of hysterical gypsy child-snatchers headlines. The 3 burglars story for us is just a poke on the fire to keep it alive by saying “we know that there were 3 main players that night”. It’s our belief that Gerry McCann, Jane Tanner and Robert Murat received this message with special interest.

The fourth was a TV program about criminal liars. All closed cases except one. Doubly unprofessional. First by making a professional judgement (Sharon Leal: “the McCanns are 100% innocent (from my point of view)”) about 2 people involved in an unclosed case. Second by making a professional judgement (“100% innocent (from my point of view)”) about 2 people based solely on a very short video footage without any sort of replay.

Sharon Leal's view on McCanns should have been, if anything at all, “the clip shown doesn't point to the guilt of the McCanns because...”, leaving it open for other deductions to be drawn from other clips.

Anyway, as the Portuguese say, “só se justifica quem perde” which translates into “only those who lose justify themselves”, basically stating that there’s only a justification when there’s something to justify. To justify that the McCanns are innocent is only because the general public has the exact opposite perception about them.

This TV documentary has baffled us because of its origins. We know its origins but its motives do baffle us. We can’t make up our minds. We don’t know if it’s from the cat by over-ridiculing things with the objective of further enhancing the hostility against the couple, or if it’s from the rats in a very lame and disastrous attempt to fight back.

Whether intentional or not the result was the same: it has made the hostility against the couple rise. 

The cat is after the rats. There’s no question about that.

The erosion on the defending walls is evident. They are about to cave in.

But the question is what rats exactly the cat is after.

The cat wants closure. It’s been almost 3 years since he’s been commissioned to have this meal and it’s been taunting him since.

There’s a couple of rats that are doomed. That is obvious and certain. These 2 were doomed from the very start.

At first the cat was told by his master(s) to swallow them in a single, spectacular gulp. This was in 2007.

But soon after this initial order he was told to back off as these rats were no longer rats or, at least, shouldn’t be treated as the rats they were.

But pretending that rats aren’t rats didn’t work out. They never stopped being rats and everyone saw they were rats. Even calling them mice didn’t fool anyone. A rat is a rat.

So the cat has been told, for almost a year now, that a meal has to take place and it’s mandatory that it’s rat.

However, how many rats will be on the cat’s plate, we don’t know.

That couple of rats are certain to be served. That's about all that's certain.

But many others rats are lurking in the background, seeking every nook and cranny in the sewers to hide in desperate hope to not be noticed. No rat wants to be part of the meal. Not even the couple but they are doomed indeed.

From what we have been able to understand the cat was told not to go very deep into the hole.

One would think, after all that has been written, that the cat would have planned this meal by starting with the couple as appetizers, followed by a “grill-of-7” and, for dessert, maybe a rat caught here and another there, or maybe, like grapes, many other little, unimportant rats.

Nothing too heavy. A light meal, easy on the rats. Important that important rats not be touched.

And where we see things going, we’re afraid that the cat may now have been told to be on a strict diet. Told to cut down drastically on rat. To have more than 1 rat but never 3.

He is to avoid absolutely any more than 2. Design his menu for that amount and only that amount.

Only under very, very exceptional circumstances is the fire to be lit to grill the other 7. More than 7 is not mission impossible but not even a possibility.

We, as you know, enjoy being spoil-sports. Today we will tell you what we think the cat thinks of doing to solve his rat problem. Just telling it to spoil his fun.

The scenario for a 2-rat-only meal, what we think will be Scotland Yards' version of things:

Either Gerry or Kate accidentally kill Maddie. Who it will be, we will never know because one will say it was the other. The location of the accident will be the same: the couch near the window.

Death happened in between 18.30 – 19.30.

When all the other T7 couples were in their apartments getting ready for the usual dinner at 20.30 at Tapas. They are unaware of the tragedy. To this day.

Gerry and Kate decide to go for the abduction thesis.

While Kate cleans up the apartment and puts Maddie’s body in the closet ready to be disposed, Gerry goes out and recces where he can dispose of the body.

The T9 meet at Tapas for the usual dinner, all sitting around the BRT.

The checks on the children take place as said later by the T9, in their statements. Others checking on the McCann's children and the McCanns checking none other than their own.

At around 21.10 – 21.20, Gerry gets up from the BRT to initiate the disposal of Maddie’s body, something only known by Kate.

He goes into the apartment, picks up Maddie's body and exits by the back door. Realises that Jez Wilkins is  on the road. Lays Maddie’s body on the flower bed and walks out pretending he’s going back to Tapas. It’s 21.20 – 21.30.

Gerry and Jez engage in conversation. Neither is aware that Jane Tanner passes by them nor of Creche Dad on his way home who Tanner sees walking at the end of the street.

At this point the Smiths are having dinner at Dolphins. They get up and head for Kelly’s. Martin is the last to leave as he has to pay, which he does at 21.27.

The conversation between Gerry and Jez finishes and Gerry waits for Jez to get out of sight. It’s 21.30 – 21.40. He heads, unaware, for the Smith Sighting.

The Smiths, stop very briefly at Kelly’s. One very quick drink or not even that. Peter’s wife is feeling ill and Peter has to fly back to Ireland the next day. So they leave Kelly’s at around 21.40 – 21.45.

The Smiths are in Rua Escola Primária at 21.45 – 21.50.That is exactly when Gerry is coming down that road.

He crosses with the Smiths, heading towards the beach, down Rua 25 de Abril. Not the stairs.

He reaches the beach and dumps the body at sea.

Makes his way back to Tapas via the quickest route.

Sits at Tapas at around 22.00 – 22.10. He’s been away for almost an hour and 2 Tapas employees notice this absense but think he's only been absent for half an hour.

The friends, entertained by the conversation, don’t notice he was absent that long.

At 22.15 – 22.20, Kate gets up to set off the alarm and convince everyone, including the T7, that an abduction has taken place.

And there you have what we think will be Scotland Yard’s official version of what happened. A preview, so to speak.

Please note that the scenario proposed is NOT what we think happened or wish for, but feel may be the one chosen by SY. We have made this “prediction” to do our part in avoiding it coming true. So it's hardly a prophecy.

The plot may have 2 and only 2 variations. One minor, the other relevant.

The minor is to have Gerry, when crossing with the Smiths, go down the stairs and not Rua 25 de Abril. This will justify him crossing the road to where AS is instead of keeping to the left hand side of the road, which would be the most logical route for someone who walks down Rua da Escola Primaria and wanted to turn... left.

The drawback of is having Gerry walk further away from Tapas or he has to return, so allowing him less time to do so after dumping the body at sea.

After watching UK Crimewatch it’s unlikely this variation will be adopted.

The relevant variation is to involve the T7. By having Maddie die between 18.15 – 18.45 and even possibly involving Payne in Maddie’s death.

This would mean that the T7 were in on the game during the dinner around the BRT at Tapas.

This variation, 2 + “grilled 7”, would appease the general public, just leaving the “DP Gang” rather unhappy, a “WH” group that has worked so hard these years.

The UK Crimewatch seems to be against the adoption of this variation but public opinion and Mr Amaral's CMTV video might change that even if it leaves whoever is protecting Payne very unhappy.

Those, all other “WH”, who seek to keep the guests, Ocean Club and ex-Pats out of the mess would be very, very pleased with the 2 + “grilled 7” solution. That's what they have been striving for all this time.

There you have it.

But as good sports that we are, we will give SY a heads-up about the problems with this story.

There's the problem that there were no Tapas dinners. The (in)famous fictional BRT, the absurd Quiz Nights and the ridiculousness of the Tapas reservation sheets prove that beyond any doubt. Only the T9 and the Tapas employees make it real but as you know, we are sure that they are all involved in the cover-up, so all singing from the same hymn music sheet when it came to lie about what really happened.

There's the problem of time. Not only to justify why Gerry's absence of approximately an hour was only noticed by 2 Tapas employees and even then at an estimated half an hour only but time is a problem for him to complete all tasks he has to do. Remember what he has to accomplish: leave the BRT, go to the apartment and pick up Maddie, entertain Jez Wilkins, walk to be seen be the Smiths, walk up to the sea and dump the body and then come back to the Tapas.

Knowing he was seen, it would be natural for him to go to the apartment to change clothes. We will accept that since he’s trying his best to keep his absence from the table being noticed, his priority is to sit again at the BRT as quickly as he can manage, so he skips this hoping no one will notice what he's wearing that night at Tapas. No one does.

There’s the time tweaking problem. To have this all fit, one must delay Gerry leaving the table, anticipate the Smith sighting and delay the alarm. Gerry has to leave the BRT later than 21.00, the Smith sighting to be before 22.00 and the alarm after 22.00.

The plot is limited by the payment made by Martin Smith at 21:27 at Dolphins. We know that after this all the 9 Smiths enter another establishment, Kelly's, have a drink (sit, ask, get served and consume), pay for the drinks, exit Kelly's and walk up a stairs to be at the destined rendezvous at Rua da Escola Primária before 22.00.

To make it happen is quite hard. You have to hurry the people along to finish their drinks. Maybe have only Martin and Peter drinking and the rest standing by the door waiting. But even then you have a 4yr old walking up those stairs pretty quickly.

The later the Smith sighting happens, the later the alarm afterwards is given. After all, Gerry is at Tapas when it was raised. And after the sighting he still has to walk all the way to the sea, dump the body and get back to Tapas.

There’s the door problem. Why come out of the apartment at the backgate, which is South-East, when his intention is to go North/North-West and the apartment's front door faces... North? Why not go via this door which is a shorter and more direct route plus it provides better initial coverage? And when at the backgate why not simply turn right and go down Rua Dr. Professor Gentil Martins towards the beach, instead of turning left to turn left on Rua Agostinho da Silva? It seems that Gerry has a similar problem with orientation as Creche Dad does.

There’s the Creche Dad problem. Why is an innocent dad carrying a shoeless and coatless child on a chilly night (him wearing a coat) and going towards the Creche instead of moving away from it? Who was this character (oh, you've already said you are sure that it is a referenced and identified tourist), what was he doing there and why was he carrying a child and walking in that direction?

Rua Primeiro de Maio (Blue) v Rua Escola Primária (Red) to head for the beach via PdL Church area.

There’s the recce problem. If Gerry did recce the route and is running tight in time plus being late after the Jez encounter, why did he choose to go via Rua da Escola Primária, then Rua 25 de Abril and then Rua Primeiro de Maio, instead of going simply and immediately down Rua Primeiro de Maio in the first place, which is a much shorter and direct way to reach the beach via church area?

And if he did recce and decided to go down Rua da Escola Primaria and then turn left on Rua 25 de Abril, then what was all that zig-zagging about when he encountered the Smiths? And why did he cross the road towards AS? He crosses Peter Smith on the left side of the road, so why not stay on the left? He supposedly does want to go left and supposedly knows he wants to go left.

You can fix half of this particular problem by having Gerry going down those stairs but you still can’t explain why he crosses the street, from left to right, between Peter and Martin Smith. And if he goes down the stairs, how he manages to get back in time.

If he didn’t recce you simply can’t fit the time to hesitate and for hands-on discovery with the tight timeline Gerry has to follow to make the thing minimally realistic.

There’s the intentionality problem. Why doesn’t Gerry avoid the encounter with the Smiths? He has time (distance) and plenty of opportunities to escape contact: alley on the right, Rua Ema Vieira Alvernaz on the left, unnamed street on the right and small stairs on the left.

There’s the body debunking problem. How did Gerry know that the sea wouldn’t return the body? The body found would show lesions not compatible with an abduction (remember Gerry is playing out an abduction). They are both doctors, they both know that. And if he didn’t throw the body at sea, where did he put it knowing he might not be able to return to it? And why it wasn't found when the whole area was combed with a very fine tooth-comb?

Finally, there’s the fine print problem. Two things that were photographed inside the parent’s room that in the same night were no longer there: the beige pants on the bed and the tennis bag in the closet. Why a now-you-see-now-you-don’t act with those two things? We all know there’s no such thing as magic, only illusion. So those things do exist. Where were they that night and where are they now?

Well, we think that if you can solve all these 9 minor problems then, Scotland Yard, you have a story you can sell.

You have had almost 3 years to do so and you do have, supposedly, the best criminal minds in the country, so we’re sure you will be able to pull it off. A Prime-Minister wanting to be re-elected breathing down your neck and over £6 million from the tax-payers should be enough motivation.

Oh, one last problem. To say that by killing 2 or 7 rats you will able to say that you’ve killed the whole lot is rather wishful thinking. You see, the droppings will always show there were many, many more.

Nice dinner, cat. We know you have to show results at some point in time...

And you'd better shape up. This is The Independent simply reflecting what the general public thinks of Scotland Yard.