Speed

BLUF: To demonstrate that Smithman had many opportunities to avoid the Smiths even taking into account the motion of all participants, so confirming that contact was intentional on his part.

1. PREFACE

We are accused of writing in riddles. We are aware we do write long and detailed posts and we have explained why we do that. We are also aware that our posts are objective.

To make that clear we have decided to use something that Wikipedia says is commonly used in US military writing: BLUF – Bottom Line Up Front.

A quick and objective summary of what the post is about.


2. INTRODUCTION

We have dealt extensively in the past with the Smith Sighting. About its reasons (to have an “abductor” seen that night on PdL’s streets), about its participants (Gerry carrying Tanner’s blonde daughter), about its myths (debunking the ideas that the body was disposed of at the beach or church), about why it went wrong (Smiths taking way too long to come forward) and about what we consider evident: Smithman’s clear intent in making contact with the Smiths.

We have shown why this intent is very clear in two ways.

One was to debunk the idea the child being carried was dead, so showing that no body was carried that night in Rua da Escola Primária. The child being alive meant the girl seen carried was to look like Maddie being abducted.

The other was to show how the geographical reality of where it all happened proves there were many opportunities for Smithman to escape contact and the fact that he didn’t can only mean he wanted to be seen.

These were the posts where we showed you why the Smith Sighting was intentional due to the geographical reality and the fact the carried girl was very much alive:

• The Smith Sighting
• Textusa is a Liar
• Three Little Words, Ten Huge Facts
• The Significance of Significant Time
• Being Dead is Different from Being Alive
• Child-Carrying 101
• A Human Being is Always Human
• Self-Evident Fact: Sedation
• Rua da Escola Primária - Elementary Information
• Public Misleading of Public, by McCanns
• Intentional - Not Debatable

Even so, it seems that there remains doubt about the Smithman’s intent of being seen. We apparently have yet to take into account that both Smithman and Smiths were moving towards each other and so he could have surprised them and he be surprised by them.

We received a comment precisely to that effect:

"Sorry Textusa,

Must disagree with you about the Smith Sighting. It wasn’t intentional. The Smith girl clearly states that she sees the man only after she comes up from the stairs and looks to her left. She’s surprised by him. Peter Smith says he saw the man IMMEDIATELY at the beginning of the Rua Escola Primária. So they crossed at the corner of this street with Rua 25 de Abril. They all walked into each other. The Smiths were walking up the stairs when the man was walking down Rua Escola Primária. It was an all-round surprise encounter!
And where is it written in the PJ Files that Smithman stopped long enough and with near enough proximity to be asked by a total stranger if the dead body of the child he was holding was asleep?!?
Please feel free not to publish this."

Posted by Anonymous to Textusa at 29 November 2013 15:49:00 "

We received this comment and decided not to publish it as it seemed to raise doubts about the intention of the Smith Sighting which we wanted to clarify in a post.

It says that we may have been wrong about what we said in our Intentional - Not Debatable Fact post about the clear, and not debatable Smithman's intention to be seen by the Smiths in that event known as the Smith Sighting.

We have said time and time again, and will now repeat, that we like to be corrected. Openly. Transparently.

For logic’s sake. If things are there that need be corrected, then we must do just that. We don’t mind being shown to be wrong, on the contrary, we welcome it. To proceed uncorrected is to base following arguments on false premises.

To correct us is to be our friend. That simple, that true.

We certainly don't want to be accused of intellectual dishonesty.

We don't put other people's work on caution without justification and promising to come back to the subject but never doing so. Whenever we have disagreed with someone we have always justified our disagreement.

We have always answered our readers' questions and have always corrected our statements when we found ourselves wrong.

We have never pretended to look the other way when something went against our line of thought. On the contrary, we have always confronted contradiction. Just like we're doing today.

There is currently an exception to this, and it's about the CMTV documentary. We have still to provide our opinion on it. But as we have said, we will do so as soon as a sentence of the trial is reached.

The Smith Sighting is of capital importance in the Maddie Affair. There can be no doubt about it. The granularity of its analysis is never too great.

The correction above was basically to tell us that we didn’t take into account that all those involved in the Smith Sighting were moving. The Smiths didn’t simply stay put where the crossings happened and wait for Smithman to pass by them.

Mathematically, it's the inverse situation of the very well known problem of determining the crossing point of two different trains leaving from their respective stations and coming towards each other at different speeds.

If they came at the same speed they would meet exactly at half way.

In the Smith Sighting we have, as we have shown but will show again, the exact location for each crossing, so what is to be determined is, at a certain point in time, the distance each “train” is from the respective crossing point.

The “trains” in question being Smithman coming from one direction and Peter Smith, Martin Smith and AS coming towards him.

3. THE SMITH CROSSING LOCATIONS

The opening comment of the post reveals that there seems to be confusion about where the crossings with the Smiths and Smithman happened. 

If at the Rua da Escola Primária or at the corner between this street and Rua 25 de Abril. 

This confusion has been generated by the use of the expression “IMMEDIATELY at the beginning of Rua Escola Primária” by both Peter and Martin in their statements about where the crossings happened.

Mr. Amaral, in his book, places the crossing well inside Rua da Escola Primária:

According to some translations, both Peter and Martin apparently say IMMEDIATELY at the beginning of Rua Escola Primária. 

However, what is written in the PJ Files is “logo no início” which translates into “right at the beginning”. 

Take into account that the statement is taken from English, translated at that moment into Portuguese and then back again into English.

Speculating, what may have been “at the beginning” became “logo no início” which in turn, wrongly, became “immediately at the beginning”.

Without speculation is that we have both Peter and Martin Smith SAYING they crossed with Smithman “right at the beginning of Rua Escola Primária”.

What is the difference?

It isn’t exactly mere wordplay. “Right at the beginning” is somewhat more vague in terms of precision than “immediately at the beginning”.

The latter, much more so than the first, would seem to indicate that both Martin or Peter were NOT yet in Rua da Escola Primária but still coming up the stairs or crossing Rua 25 de Abril when Smithman was approaching both.

If that was so, then it would mean that Smithman would only have realised the Smiths' presence when it was too late to react, thus justifying the encounter as accidental and in no way intentional as we have here stated, beyond any sort of doubt, that it was.

But that just can't be. It's simply not possible for Martin and Peter to both NOT yet be in Rua da Escola Primária when Smithman approached. Why? Because both Martin and Peter SAY it can’t be.

Let’s, for just a minute, suppose that the “IMMEDIATELY” is the result of correct translation, although we know it’s not. That would mean that both Peter and Martin would have to be in exact same spot, or very, very near each other.

The statements tell us the family had separated into groups. From the statements alone we don’t know into how many (as we'll see later, it can be inferred from images that it was into 3).

If Martin and Peter were part of the same group then the description of what they saw would have been identical or very similar.

They aren’t, as we’ll see.

Peter Smith “refers that when he crossed with the individual, the man was coming down on his [Peter’s] right, the deponent circulating in the middle of the street”

Martin Smith “refers that when he crossed with the individual, the man was coming down in the middle of the road, on the street”

Note that Peter is very clear that he's in the“middle of the street”. He's not at a crossing. Martin says he sees Smithman when the man is in the “middle of the road”.

We assume that the street/road referred is Rua da Escola Primária as any speculation that it is any other route simply doesn't make sense for someone coming from Apartment 5A.

So we have Smithman crossing Peter, standing in the middle of the road, on Peter’s right, and appearing on the middle of the road to Martin when Martin first becomes aware of him.

As we’ll see later, Smithman crosses with Martin on Martin’s left.

So the sequence is this: Smithman crosses with Peter on Peter’s right, crosses the street so that when Martin becomes aware of him he’s in the middle of the road and then crosses Martin on Martin’s left.

For this to happen you need one thing: space.

Space between Martin and Peter.

They can’t BOTH be at the intersection between Rua da Escola Primária and Rua 25 de Abril. even though they BOTH say “right at the beginning”.

To one of them, the one who is walking in front of the group, Peter, the words “right at the beginning” mean that he is indeed at the beginning Rua da Escola Primária but inside it.

How far in?

Peter shows this very, very clearly. Or the PJ does in his name.

The PJ Files show, in images, EXACTLY where Peter says Peter crossed with Smithman.

To doubt in any way this EXACT location is to doubt Peter’s capability to point a finger or the PJ’s capability to represent where, EXACTLY, he has pointed his finger:

The letter P indicates exactly where Smithman crossed with Peter Smith. It's well inside Rua Escola Primária. It's at its beginning, but well inside it.

To take as more accurately the words “immediately at the beginning” (a mistranslation of “right at the beginning”) over a finger pointed location is just to make up fact to fit the story.

The images, much more than the words, the images are ABSOLUTELY clear as to where EXACTLY the THREE sightings happened:

This in turn allows us to determine the distances between the 3 crossing points:

We know that the approximate distances between the CPs are the following:

- CP1 – CP2 = 17 metres (Peter and Martin)

- CP2 – CP3 = 11 metres (Martin and AS)

- CP1 – CP3 = 28 metres (Peter and AS)

Considering that where Smithman crosses with Martin Smith is where Rua da Escola Primária starts, then Peter Smith is approximately 17 metres into it when he’s crossed.

4. THE SPEED FACTOR

In the problem of the trains leaving the station one is given the distance between the stations and the speed of both trains. With these 3 values (distance, speed train1 and speed train2) one is able to calculate the meeting or crossing point.

As we said, in the Smith sighting, we have only the location of crossing points. What one wishes to calculate is, at a certain point in time, the distance between the 2 “trains”, Smithman and a Smith. The values that one requires, and doesn’t have, are the speeds of each of these 2 elements.

That is overcome by using the value of Smithman’s speed, whatever it may have been, and reference the Smith’s walking speed to it.

We’ll use 3 relative speeds: Smithman (SM) and Smith (S) walking at a same speed towards each other, S walking at half of SM’s speed and S walking at a quarter of SM’s speed.

To have S walk faster than SM is simply not realistic.

It can easily be understood that when SM is at 100 metres from the crossing point (CP), then:

- S will be, if walking at same SM’s speed, at 100 metres from CP, so 200 metres from SM;

- S will be, if walking at a half of SM’s speed, at 50 metres from CP, so 150 metres from SM;

- S will be, if walking at a quarter of SM’s speed, at 25 metres from CP, so 125 metres from SM.

5. THE SMITH FAMILY “CONVOY”

We don’t have one crossing point (CP) but 3 CPs. CP1, where Smithman crossed with Peter, CP2 where he crossed with Martin and CP3 where he crossed with AS.

We have seen that there’s 17 metres between CP1 (Peter) and CP2 (Martin).

This means that when SM is crossing with Peter in CP1:

- If Martin was walking at same speed as SM, then Martin would be 17 metres from CP2, so 34 metres from SM;

- If Martin was walking at a half of SM’s speed, then Martin would be 8.5 metres from CP2, so 25.5 metres from SM;

- If Martin was walking at a quarter of SM’s speed, then Martin would be 4.25 metres from CP2, so 21.25 metres from SM;

Peter, who is standing exactly where SM is standing, would be at the referred distances from Martin.

So the distance between Peter and Martin would be 34, 25.5 or 21.25 metres (distances shown above) depending on whether they’re walking, respectively, at the same, half or a quarter speed of what SM was.

The distance between them would be maintained as we’re assuming that both Peter and Martin are walking at the same speed:

Peter and Martin would be relative to each other, at same speed:

at half speed:

at a quarter speed:

The exact same reasoning can be made between CP1 (Peter) and CP3 (AS). The distance between both is 28 metres, so when AS, at the third and last CP, is crossed by SM:

- If walking the same speed as SM, Peter is 56 metres ahead of AS.

- If walking at half of SM’s speed, Peter is 42 metres ahead of AS.

- If walking at a quarter speed, Peter is 35 metres ahead of AS.

These distances tell you, EXACTLY, the distance in which the whole Smith family was spread out depending on the speed they were walking relative to Smithman's.

If at same speed:

If at half speed:

If at quarter speed:

The faster they walked relative to SM’s walking speed the further apart they were. The slower, the nearer.

This distance will always be bigger than the distance between CP1(P) and CP3(A), as for it to be the same they would have to be standing still!

6. THE ENCOUNTERS

Now, we just have to put all in motion:

If at same speed:

If at half speed:

If at quarter speed:

7. EYE CONTACT

The opening comment suggests that AS was probably surprised by Smithman as she came up the stairs. We tend to agree.

Peter speaks of Smithman only when this man is on his right, and Martin first speaks of him when he's in the middle of the road after crossing Peter.

It's quite irrelevant whether any or all Smiths were surprised by Smithman. What is important is whether Smithman was surprised by the Smiths.

In a surprise party it's evident the person being paid the homage will be surprised but it's also an undeniable fact that all those who planned it and those who accepted to participate in it, aren't.

That night the Smiths' only agenda is to get home. At the other end of Rua da Escola Primária.

But Smithman has a specific and criminal agenda.

Whatever reason made the Smith Sighting happen, Smithman is intentionally obstructing justice in an event involving the death of a 4 yr old girl.

For those us who are absolutely sure that the encounter was intentional, the event was concocted so that an abductor would materialise, a character absolutely essential for the abduction thesis.

For those who stubbornly still say the Smith Sighting was accidental, they say it was to take Maddie's body somewhere.

Either way, obstructing justice. Either way Smithman knows he's doing something absolutely CRIMINAL.

There's no middle ground when it comes to the Smith Sighting.

The Smiths are lost in their thoughts. Smithman is fully alert.

The distances between them all are huge and it's difficult to visualise how a group of people would communicate with each other. Did they speak loudly or shout to each other?

The children would be chatting and possibly noisy so Smithman could have heard the group before he saw them and so could have avoided them, possibly without being seen.

A group of 9 in good spirits after a night out wouldn’t be silent and adults would be giving instructions to the children to get them safely over the roads, probably holding their hands.

The ONLY hypothesis for the encounter to have been accidental is for Smithman, Gerry McCann, to be carrying Maddie's corpse in his arms.

So it's quite irrelevant when Smithman sees AS or Martin Smith. What REALLY matters is when does he see Peter Smith, the front-runner of the “Smith Family Convoy”.

And, if when Smithman sees him, if he's able to react, if he has time to react, if he has the possibility to react.

That is what determines whether the encounter was accidental or not, because if he had time and the possibility to escape contact then if it happened, as it did, then it can only be because he didn't want to avoid it.

Not because he couldn't but because he wouldn't.

We will represent where Smithman is, at the various relative speeds, when Peter Smith is at CP3, at the top of the stairs, perfectly visible from Rua da Escola Primária.

If at same speed:

If at half speed:

If at quarter speed:

As can be seen Smithman has 10, 40 or 100 metres to escape contact if the Smiths are walking at the same, half or a quarter speed as he is.

The shortest of the 3 distances is when Smiths are walking at the same speed SM is: 10 metres. 11 yds. 12 to 13 steps. 33 ft.

To see if it's enough, we'll ask you to do an exercise.

One that we all, shamefully, have done at one time or another: who hasn't been surprised by someone, in the street, in a shopping mall or wherever,  who we don't want to see? Who we immediately tried to avoid?

In that situation didn't we immediately desperately look for somewhere we could go? We just dashed into the first opportune place we could.  

We certainly didn't need 12 to 13 steps to react. So why would a man criminally holding the body of a dead child be unable to react in such a distance?

Panic?

Panic makes one do stupid things indeed. For example, in desperate situations it makes one trample over others. But one does this for a reason: safety. One acts irrationally to seek where one thinks safety is, sometimes with disastrous results.

If he was in panic, Smithman would have either quickly backtracked his steps or would run towards the stairs on his left. He does neither.

What is certain is that even in panic he most certainly wouldn't “run” towards the Smiths because that's exactly where the threat is.

He walks normally towards the Smiths. Call it what you may just don't call it panic.

10 metres, 11 yds, 33 ft. BUT ONLY, as said, in the case the Smiths are walking at the same speed he was. Any slower this distance, as can be seen, is greater.

40 metres, 44 yds, 131 ft, to the stairs on the left if they're walking at half of his speed. With other options: Rua Ema Vieira Alvernaz on the left and an unnamed street on the right.

100 metres, 109 yds, 328 ft, to the stairs on the left if the Smiths are walking at a quarter. With other options: alley on the right, Rua Ema Vieira Alvernaz on the left and an unnamed street on the right.


8. WHAT SPEED?

We obviously don't know, for certain, at what speed either Smithman or the Smiths were walking.

However we can make an educated guess. We know the Smith family “convoy” was made up of 9 people:




From the EXACT locations of the sightings, and by the people who reported them, we can deduce that the party was broken up into three groups:

- 2 Adults - Peter Smith (23) and wife (age unknown), in the front, setting up the pace, as she was feeling ill.

- 2 Adults and 2 Children - Martin Smith (58), wife (age unknown), two grandchildren (6 and 4), following the front party, grandparents taking care of their grandchildren, walking as fast as a 4 yr old would allow.

- 3 Youngsters, (13, 12 and 10) probably staying back and playing games with each other on their last night together in the Algarve.

The 9 people could have been separated differently. All we have for certain is that Peter and his wife are part of the first group, Martin Smith and wife part of the second and AS part of the third.

Irrelevant of where they are located we know the group contains an adult feeling ill and a 4 yr old. And we know the whole group is walking uphill.

So we have to compare the speed between an adult male, carrying a burden (14.5kg - 18kg / 32lb - 40lb) and walking downhill with a woman feeling ill and a 4 yr old, both walking uphill.

We also know that if the speed was the same, the Smith family covered in an area of 56 metres. That's just over 2 tennis courts. It's not a reasonable distance for 3 groups to have separated into after having left a bar and just gone up stairs with a woman in the front feeling ill .

We think that when we say the Smiths could  be walking at a quarter of the Smithman's speed, we are exaggerating. We think the Smiths were walking slower than that.

But, as always, you be the decider. We think we have given you all the information you need to decide.


9. CONCLUSION

Smithman surprised the Smiths as they were probably too absorbed in their thoughts, problems and interactions to pay attention to a man coming down Rua da Escola Primária.

Smithman was not surprised by the Smiths. He saw Peter Smith at a distance that would not render him actionless and much less optionless He had time (represented by distance) and many option (alley on the right, Rua Ema Vieira Alvernaz on the left, an unnamed street on the right and stairs on the left) to avoid contact.

Smithman encountered the Smiths because he decided not to avoid the contact.


10. “EPILOGUE”
 
About where do the PJ Files say that Smithman stopped.

The answer to that question is: nowhere.

But we never said it did. We were very clear that it was Sky News that reported it.

Sky News, April 07 2008:

“Martin Smith, from Drogheda in Co Louth, was on holiday in Praia Da Luz with his family when they bumped into the man just before 10pm on May 3 last year. The Smith family's suspicions were aroused because the man made no response when they asked if the barefoot child was asleep. "He just put his head down and averted his eyes, which is very unusual in a tourist town at such a quiet time of the year," said Mr Smith.”

It seems to us that the phrase “...when they asked if the barefoot child was asleep” means clearly that either Martin Smith or his wife asked Smithman a question.

Sky News is supposedly not tabloid. This hasn't been denied or corrected.

We don't know the exact wording of the question but it's an educated guess that it was either “Asleep?” or “Is she asleep?”

IF the Sky News report is true, then Smithman did stop long enough and with close enough proximity to be asked by a total stranger (Martin Smith or his wife) if the dead body (which we know wasn't the case but just stating if, after all this, you still “insist” on believing the encounter to be accidental) of the child he was holding was asleep.

We did not take into account this eventual short-stop when calculating the distances linked to Smithman v Smiths relative speeds.


Post Scriptum: The blog will now be breaking for Easter. We wish all our readers a very happy one.