The Sun will go down

1. Introduction

The hours preceding the battle are unquestionably the worst in time of war. Those long endless minutes when the soldier knows there will be a fight but all he knows about is that he will be a part of it. Other than that, little or nothing else.

And if his side is the one not holding the initiative then all becomes  even worse as there’s no way for him to know the when nor the how will things happen.

That’s the time imagination gets the best of us all.

It’s inevitable the mind will come up with all possible scenarios. Realistic and unrealistic.

The problem resides in what happens next and that is imagination becomes reality.

Note, a reality before reality happened.

To each imagined scenario the mind creates consequences. Some logical others absurd but dreamt up anyway.

Then imagination follows imagined action to each one imagined consequences. That’s when imagination forgets that it is imagining as one is aware that is imagining the reactions but tends to forget the consequences to which one is imagining reactions are imaginary as well.

The built up of hypothesis upon hypothesis usually ends up in an exercise in which one loses track of where to draw line separating imagination from reality.

When that line is indeed drawn, there will always be things that were imagined but are now taken, and so become real.

This is the waiting time. Imagination gets the best of us if we’re not careful.

Add to the above the infamous reality that “he who tells a tale adds a detail”, one becomes a one-at-least-that-I-know-of, which in turn is transformed to an at-least-two to progress quickly to a three-or-even-four and before one knows one has made up an entire crowd out of one.


2. The McCann appeal

(Note: This section was revised on 6 May 2016, 17:52:00) 

We in the blog were victims of this, we let our imagination get the best of us.

In our post “The days after” we said that Mr Amaral’s legal ordeal wasn’t over as there was the McCann appeal to the Supreme Justice Court still left to happen.

We said it and then we forgot we had said it.

We started to debate between ourselves when would the Establishment act on the issue. The Sun will have to go down on this matter, sooner or later. Either behind a clouded sky or in all its full glory, but it will go down. An inexorable fact that it will happen. So we started to discuss when that would be.

We came up with dates – which we will refrain from mentioning here but can say that the words anniversary and Brexit came up – and really got lost in the exercise until the moment we were reminded that there’s still an appeal to be submitted by the McCanns.

Our trip back to reality on this particular was much worse than we thought it would be, because we have realised that we have unwittingly mislead our readers by doing something we strive never to do: give a much more positive perspective than the real one.

We try our best to stick to the principle of hoping for the best but cautioning for the worst.

In this particular case our fault was in assuming wrongly that the Supreme Justice Court could easily refuse to accept the appeal from the McCanns.

We must correct ourselves as we were warned by someone who cares that what we put out is correct, that an appeal is not that easily refused.

Before we proceed to explain what we mean, let us say that nothing changes our view that the appeal is pointless. All we said about that we maintain, we are not seeing the minimal chance for the McCann come out winners on the other side.

Where were we wrong? We underestimated the fact they couldn’t get to the other side. We thought – and we will explain why we thought that – they would stumble on the front door and be kicked off the premises.

Now, wiser, there’s a strong possibility that they will enter the building, although our convictions they will exit losers remains intact.

Why did we think the appeal would be refused by the Supreme Justice Court?

It was mainly due to this court refusing to accept the appeal from the McCann team during the cautionary action together with other news about the Supreme Justice Court refusing to consider appeals, namely what happened with the appeal to this court filed by Afonso Dias, the man sentenced on the Rui Pedro case.

Our friend has pointed out that unless there’s a technical error, the Supreme Justice Court cannot refuse to accept an appeal.

It refused during the cautionary action but that was because these injunction processes have a time priority and so have specific rules, which differ significantly from those of a “normal” process.

In layman’s terms, a technical error would be to go against the conditions the law states an appeal to the Supreme Justice Court has to abide by.

So, even if it’s evident that it’s pointless, if it abides by said condition then the Supreme Justice Court has no option but to accept it.

We are not seeing Isabel Duarte making any technical mistakes, although we have witnessed high-profile lawyers see their appeals refused to be accepted by the Supreme Justice Court.

And once this court accepts the appeal, it also has to accept the counter-appeal from the other side, a right that cannot be waived.

To simplify, there’s a time limit for the McCanns to appeal, and if they do and the appeal is accepted, there’s the same amount of time for Mr Amaral’s legal team to respond.

The McCanns have 30 working days – or as the Portuguese call them, useful days – to file the appeal.

We are guided by the timelines which happened with Mr Amaral’s appeal to the Appeal Court last year: the sentence was on April 29, and he filed the appeal on June 15, which is 47 days later.

If one skips a day to allow for notification, then starts counting from then, from May 2 to June 15, there are 30 working days.

Using this reasoning, we can conclude the McCanns have until June 1 to file in the appeal to the Supreme Justice Court.

After that we have the time between the filing of the appeal and the decision of the court to accept it or not.

In the case of the 2015 appeal to the Appeal Court, we know that Mr Amaral was informed on Sept 3. That was 80 days, with the judiciary holidays in between.

However, we know from the notification that the process was sent for analysis to the court on Jul 10. That means the decision to accept was taken either then or before, that meaning the decision was taken 25 days after the filing.

So, again using again the same reasoning, the decision to accept or not the McCann appeal will be taken around June 27 (June 26 is a Sunday) and the expected notification around a week later, around July 4.

If there are no technical mistakes, then Mr Amaral has the time stated by law to file in the counter-appeal, and this takes us to post judiciary holidays.

In this instance, the appeal following its normal terms, we don’t see a decision from the Supreme Justice Court on this case before Christmas and even then we’re being optimistic.

The only way we’re seeing this process being simplified is for the McCanns not to submit the appeal.

If the McCanns miss the June 1 deadline (please take into account it is our calculation) then all legal doings will be over on that day. Only left to happen then is for the Appeal Court sentence to be “transited in judgement” which is merely procedural, literally a document saying that having exhausted all possible appeals the sentence of April 19 2016 transits in judgement.

When that document is signed, the McCanns will have a time limit which we think is of 30 days to pay the costs of the 1st Instance and Appeal Courts.

As there’s no decision to be taken by then there’s nothing that can change the McCanns not winning this legal battle and having to pay all the legal costs associated with it. Nothing can change that. What is left, we repeat, is procedural.

If the McCanns file the appeal it has technical errors then the Supreme Justice Court will refuse to accept it. As we have seen this would be around July 4.

The only difference between that stated above, besides the date, would be that the costs associated with the Supreme Justice Court would be piled on those of the 2 previous instances.

If the appeal is accepted then we’re looking at seeing Mr Amaral only crossing the finish line around Christmas time.

Summing up, we have 3 possible times for the end of the McCann v Amaral damages trial: around June 1 if the McCanns don’t file the appeal, around July 4 if they file it and is not accepted due to technical errors and Christmas if it is accepted.

It has been evident for us the UK Establishment – and the Portuguese will follow – will wait for whatever will happen about this process before making a move.

It makes no sense to have waited to watch a marathon for more than 2 hours and then leave the stadium 50 seconds before the finish line is crossed.

No, having waited this long, we believe they will wait until all the legal doings are over in Portugal.

And the legal doings ending are in the hands of the UK Establishment, they can stop this nonsense by strongly advising – ordering – the McCanns not to file in the appeal.

So, to all those not sleeping so they won’t miss the cuffs being put on the McCanns, please do go to bed, it will still be a while. Hogan Howe did say a few months and not a month nor a couple of months.

Anxiety will only damage the health, so as the coffee mug says, keep calm and follow the example set by Mr Amaral: be resilient.. 

3. Events

Quite a lot has happened since our last post and this is what we picked up as relevant:

- Mr Amaral says a second book on Maddie is coming up;

- The 2013 thesis of the 3 named Portuguese Bungling Burglar confirmed rehashing;

- The ITV confusion, in which it was firstly said the McCanns cancelled their presence on Lorraine Kelly, a staunch McCann supporter and then it turning out to be they weren’t even invited;

- Jim Gamble’s tweet about how a certain abduction has for him stopped being so certain;

- Kate McCann says she has returned to Praia da Luz very recently to look for answers;

- The 9th anniversary celebrations


4. Mr Amaral’s second book

This for us was quite a surprise.

We found it very strange that having had the opportunity to refer to it in the CMTV appearance of April 26, Mr Amaral made no mention of this book.

It would be expected that together with the fact that he intended to publish an English version of his book “A Verdade da Mentira” he would also mention this second book, even possibly saying he would have it translated as well, thus seizing the opportunity of the free publicity which the programme granted as it was aired to “celebrate” his victory in the Appeal Court.

He didn’t. So learning he had this second book surprised us, so we can only imagine the other side was not pleased to hear about it.

The other surprise was the fact that it was James Murray from the Express who first reported it.

We would expect this sort of news to come first from a Portuguese newspaper like the Correio da Manhã.

The fact that James Murray says he was in Lisbon at the time of this exclusive article is another interesting detail to be taken into account.

James Murray as all of us who have followed the case for a while know, is no stranger to the Maddie case and has had some “scoops” about it in the past.

The article “We must reconstruct Maddie’s fateful night” was initially published online by the Express at 00:01, Sun, May 1, 2016. Then it was as inexplicably pulled out and then republished at 08:56, Sun, May 1, 2016.

Thanks to Joana Morais, we can see that there’s no difference between the pulled version and the republished one except for the title, which initially was “‘We must reconstruct Maddie’s fateful night’ says former Portuguese police chief”, so maybe someone first thought the article was too audacious for publication but confronted with the question put by Joana Morais on Twitter then decided, wisely, that it would be best to leave to leave it published.

The article is basically a taunt against the UK.

First, it’s said that the book’s focus is the timelines of May 3. We all know that there will be the need of many, many pages if one intends to deal with all the discrepancies presented by the T9 alone.

Plus it asks for a reconstruction to be done.

A full reconstruction with not only the T9, but also with Jez Wilkins, the Smith family and… Crèche Dad:

“It would be important for the person Scotland Yard has identified to take part in the reconstruction as this period of time is absolutely crucial.”

If that isn’t taunting the SY we don’t know what taunting is.

We would love to see where Crèche Dad say he walked around in Luz that night to appear where he appeared and walking in the direction he supposedly seen walking.

We don’t know his name, but it’s certain that he had to be a Mark Warner guest in the Ocean Club.

The Ocean Club booking sheets should show exactly in which apartment he was staying.

We know it doesn’t make any sense for him to be where he is knowing where he came from, so at least we hope there’s some sense him being there knowing where he was heading to. For example, he cannot be a guest staying in Block 4.

In fact, the only plausible building for him to be staying would be Block 6, the one where Raj Balu and Neil Berry were staying, and even so it still has to be explained why he would go around the Tapas area carrying a 4 yr old girl.

A reconstruction would clarify that.

Being a little sadistic, we would even suggest that his participation in the reconstruction should begin at the crèche and then have him carry a child across his arms, in the position he posed for SY and was shown in the 2013 Crimewatch, from there to wherever his apartment was by going where he would say he went.

All that way with the child across his arms, not allowing him to hold her against the natural way to carry which would be against his shoulder.

After all, it is the way it was he assumed he carried the child to SY so he shouldn’t have any problem repeating the feat now.

The article also contradicts the alleged lack of collaboration from the Portuguese authorities that the British press has reported was happening:

“In Algarve’s capital, Faro, inquiries by the Sunday Express last week indicated there was cooperation between the police forces.

A source said: “If detectives are asked to help with a reconstruction I’m sure they will.””

So Britain, ask away.

And what about this explicit taunt from Mr Amaral about the UK accepting or not the reconstruction?

“We seem to be getting towards the end of the Operation Grange investigation, the last roll of the dice, so what is there to lose?”

Lastly, the article ridicules the McCanns:

“However, it is understood they [the McCanns] were advised a reconstruction after so many years would be “pointless”.

A source close to the family said: “Kate and Gerry do not wish to engage with anything Amaral says.”

This must be a first. The parents of a missing child saying that a reconstruction done by the police of the night their daughter disappeared is pointless.

One must assume they also think the millions the UK has spent on Operation Grange was also pointless.

And doesn’t the whole thing show how fearful of Mr Amaral the McCanns are? We have seen dogs with their tails stuffed between their legs showing less fear.

This second book is Mr Amaral explicitly threatening the UK.

He’s saying now that I have the power of the unhindered pen I will use it. I will use it in waves. First the translation of the “banned” book and am already following it with another. And who says I will stop there?

Mr Amaral’s pen is certainly not a friend of archival. And he’s making sure UK notices that.

By the way, have the readers noticed that James Murray contradicts Hogan Howe?

“Scotland Yard officers sent legal letters to Portuguese police stating the lines of inquiry they wished to pursue.

A Portuguese prosecutor will decide if its officers can carry them out.”

No question it’s plural, just like Duthie said but unlike Hogan Howe did when he said he was waiting for an answer to a final and single one.

Also, we find it strange a request having been sent in July 2015, is still to be decided in May 2016 if it is to be carried out by the Portuguese. The Portuguese Justice System is slow but not that slow.

Just shows how the information being put out is not being coordinated and it’s almost a free-for-all out there on that side of the fence.


5. The 3 Portuguese Burglars

If there was an example of imaginary things becoming a reality, the rehashing of the 3 burglars thesis would be it.

In a stressful situation a fly can easily become a dragon due to exaggerated and pressured descriptions.

We have not heard anywhere credible that the supposed final line of inquiry would be the 3 burglars.

The Mail article marking the 9th anniversary, “Kate and Gerry McCann lead prayers for their missing daughter Madeleine as they vow 'there will always be hope' on ninth anniversary of her disappearance in Portugal” does not single out this thesis, just names it among others:

“Detectives have explored dozens of theories since she vanished, including allegations she was kidnapped by a paedophile gang, killed during a botched burglary or snatched and sold by child traffickers.”

May we remind people from where this came from?

It first appeared by Jerry Lawton’s hand on April 28 in an article in the Star “Maddie McCann 'snatched in botched break-in' Cops sure they know what happened to girl”

A source said: “This remaining lead is thought to be key.”

The article says that:

“Detectives say they can still crack the case despite Met Commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Hogan saying they are only chasing one final lead before the investigation is shelved.

That theory is that the tot was snatched after disturbing burglars who had been targeting the Portuguese holiday block where she was staying.”

Oh poor, poor Scotland Yard if you have to resort to the Star to put out your information to the public!

And if one read the word “despite” correctly, either Hogan Howe is not referring to the 3 Burglars or if he is, he thinks it’s useless. The “Detectives” who think the bungled burglary will be the one that will crack the case do disagree with him, don’t they?

And where does this information come from? From the pillow snatcher himself.

“Criminal psychologist Heriberto Janosch González says he tipped off police about da Silva and Rodrigues in 2013.

He said: “I view the events not as a kidnapping but as a theft that escalated.””

One has to wonder how Janosch believes in a bungled burglary if he has shown a video in which the abductor/burglar doesn’t even enter the apartment.

Basically for Janosch to make any sense, the burglar picks Maddie from outside the apartment which he never enters and then outside, panics and kills her.

How come SY has reason to believe Maddie never left the apartment alive is something Janosch will have to explain. Maybe he panicked inside and killed her, and then walked out via front door, opened the window and picked up body through the window.

This story started to grow legs with the articles that followed from the Sun, “Revealed: Brit cops 'know who snatched Maddie' - and think they have questioned him already” and from the Mail “Madeleine McCann 'was kidnapped during a botched burglary by a gang of thieves who British police have already quizzed' but are blocked from questioning again”.

As it was pointed out on Twitter, it was quite strange for SY to KNOW who was the snatcher but was only able to THINK it had questioned him.

It’s incredible how this story grew legs to become a credible hypothesis.

Carlos Anjos, a former PJ inspector and now a CMTV commentator, has said that one of the 3 Portuguese men heard in July 2014 has passed away (from Joana Morais):

“They [SY] want to talk with three people, it should be said that of these three I can almost guess who they are going to try pin the blame on for the abduction - on the one that died. Of the three men there's one that has already died, and that is always the weakest link since he's not here to defend himself.”

We don’t know of any of the men having passed away. We would expect that if any of them had indeed passed away, that would be news. Especially now. Just like it happened with Euclides Monteiro.

In fact, what we think happened was that Carlos Anjos thinks Euclides Monteiro, who has died and was finger pointed in 2013 is part of the 3 heard in July.

We think that Carlos Anjo’s reasoning was that he thinks the Brits want to pin it all on a dead patsy, and as Euclides Monteiro has indeed passed away, he mistakenly included him in this group.

But we are speculating about what Carlos Anjos has said. As we said, we don’t know if any of them has passed away and if that is the case, we will inform our readers the moment we are informed that it is the case.

A final note on the 3 Burglar issue.

We think it’s one of those situations that it is simply too ridiculous to be just ridiculous, it has to have a purpose.

If it didn’t involve the lives of 3 men, who saw themselves being dragged into the case by the British, we would even dare the UK to pursue this, to try and make these 3, an Ocean Club employee, an homeless minor and a drug addict, the patsies of the most visible crime of the 21st century.

The expression “laughing stock” really comes to mind in all of this.

As it is far too ridiculous we have no option but to look at it as a serious issue.

Not as an attempt to pin any blame on those 3 men but to use them to provoke a reverse psychology effect, which would be to show how ridiculous it would be to try to put the blame on those 3 and even how ridiculous it would be to try and put the blame on anyone outside the T9.


6. The ITV confusion

What can be said about this?

It could only have been worse for the McCanns if it had been Antonella Lazzeri who had refused to interview them for the Sun.

Over the years Kelly has appeared to be #2 fan of the “McCann fan club” right after #1 Lazzeri.

That is, until the 9th anniversary. This year something changed.

This year Kelly has not even invited them over. How symptomatic.

The McCanns first tried to say that it was them who cancelled their appearance but quickly ITV and Kelly put them in their place.

The McCanns are on what we call the OJ Simpson 2nd phase – the after trial.

Up to now many a “celebrity” and celebrity wannabee have stuck with the McCanns.

We think that being loyal to the McCann cause brought significant compensation to those who were from a grateful Establishment over the years.

OJ Simpson, during the trial, felt such support, namely from the American black community after his legal team was able to turn what was a criminal matter into a racial issue.

But once acquitted, OJ became cumbersome.

He had been declared not guilty but everyone knew that all had been a legal game and nothing to do with guilt.

Everyone, even those who stood by his side during the trial, knew he was guilty so once the trial ended it was no longer wise to be seen near him.

The moment he was acquitted the 2nd phase – the after-trial – began.

People stopped coming to his parties and restaurants refused his reservations.

The message was clear: you’ve been acquitted but we know you did it, so please stay away, we want nothing to do with you.

The McCanns are now in that stage.

With the added burden that no one has ever declared them not guilty of anything. With the added burden that the dogs have pointed their noses in their direction and only in that direction.

To them only the second part of the phrase applies to them: we know you did it, so please stay away, we want nothing to do with you.


7. Jim Gamble’s tweet

Those following our blog know that we think Jim Gamble is one very important player in this game, if one can call it a game.

In fact, back in 2010 when we think it was decided for the tables to be turned, he was the first one to go. Off CEOP went.

Gamble has repeatedly stated there was plenty of evidence of an abduction.

For such a relevant player to downgrade the abduction into only a suspected abduction can only mean one thing: Gamble is gaining distance, just another one showing the McCanns how well into OJ Simpson’s 2nd phase they are.

Only Jim Gamble is not just another one. He was one of the faces involved in the tragic pantomime which ended with Brenda Leyland losing her life.

Gamble gaining distance from the McCanns is very, very relevant.


8. Kate McCann returning to Luz

We doubt very much doubt this ever happened. The 2016 visit, not the respective headline.

Again, news rehashed. From 2013.

But isn’t Kate with this saying again – and no one can blame her for not trying to drive the message home – that the answers lie in Praia da Luz?

We have repeatedly said – and no one can blame us for not trying to drive the message home – that we agree with her about that.

But we say that instead of looking to walls and cobblestones for answers, we think questions should be addressed to people residing there and nearby area. Nearby as far as the distance to Sagres either way.

And we think Kate is saying the same as we are, only with the words she’s allowed to use.

9. The 9th anniversary celebrations

What stood our most this year to mark Maddie’s disappearance? We would say the word “lack”.

Lack of enthusiasm. Lack of empathy. Lack of commitment. Lack of anger against a closing investigation. Lack of everything. And not by the McCanns alone but by all we expected to have the opposite attitude.

There were only 3 articles about the anniversary celebrations, and 2 from the same newspaper reporter, Antonella Lazzeri, from the same tabloid, the Sun. The other paper was the Mail.

The rest of the media did not report anything about this.

The first article, from the Sun, marked the return of the Lazzeri to its pages after we genuinely thought she had been Brunted out. The article on May 3 “'We will continue to do everything': Gerry and Kate McCann tell of renewed hope of finding Maddie on ninth anniversary of disappearance”.

As we have said before, it’s interesting to see how Antonella makes an effort lately to avoid using the word abduction:

“When Madeleine first went missing Kate and Gerry released a photo of her wearing an Everton shirt to boost the global hunt for her.

She vanished from a holiday resort in Portugal’s Praia da Luz in May 2007 while her parents were dining at a nearby tapas restaurant with pals. She would now be aged 12, nearly 13.”

Not being very supportive is she?

Especially when she also writes “[Mr Amaral] last week won a huge appeal court victory against the McCanns about a book he wrote on the case.”

On reading this, doesn’t one automatically think that Mr Amaral is on the right side of justice and the McCanns on the wrong one?

Then we had the vigil. Reported by the Mail on May 3, “Kate and Gerry McCann lead prayers for their missing daughter Madeleine as they vow 'there will always be hope' on ninth anniversary of her disappearance in Portugal” and the Sun on May 4 “'After nine years, we don't want another one': Gerry and Kate McCann talk of desperation to find Maddie at vigil on anniversary of disappearance“

Gerry is able to do the right thing in the wrong time with an interval of 9 years.

His daughter had just disappeared and he says then what he should have said now which was they would have to think of ways of keeping Maddie in the headlines for years and then says now what he should have said then which would be they wouldn’t want to celebrate anniversaries because they wanted their nightmare to end quickly and have their daughter return home quickly.

Now, note within 24 hours the McCanns say they vow to continue forever and ever to a we have had enough, we don’t want anymore. By the same reporter of the same newspaper.

We believe that the message conveyed on May 4 has a much more truthful ring to it than the May 3 one, the McCanns do want to end this, whatever hell follows cannot be worse than this one.

In this article Lazzeri once again avoids the word abduction: 

“Their daughter was just three years old when she disappeared on May 3 2007.

She vanished from a holiday resort while her parents were dining at a nearby tapas restaurant with pals. She would now be aged 12, nearly 13.” 

And what was this about bringing Mr Amaral ‘s second book into an article that was supposed to be supportive of the McCanns?

“On Sunday Kate and Gerry prepared themselves for more heartbreak after a former Portugese cop announced he is writing a second book about the case.

Goncalo Amaral accused the McCanns of faking her abduction to cover up her death in his 2008 book Truth of the Lie.”

The accusation written in explicit terms in the Sun – by Lazzeri – and nowhere the word false or another similar to be read in that phrase.

And wasn’t this just free publicity to BOTH of Mr Amaral’s book, with the title of the first so that it’s easier for people to look for it when published?

Oh what a wonderful McCann supporter Lazzeri has turned out to be!

It was noted to us that no family or friends appear with the McCanns in this vigil and we agree that this was very strange and telling.

We know the twins are minors, but this was a ceremony about their sister. Why weren’t they present? Their faces could have been censored upon request, so why did they stay home? Lazzeri says in the May 3 article they would be present.

11 yr olds are old enough to not want to take part in a farce and we do hope the McCanns had enough sense to not even try to involve them in one.

10. Conclusion

We suggest people settle down. We are not seeing anything happening soon as the legal procedures are not over.

We are not seeing the UK government risking having the Supreme Justice Court accept the McCann appeal after it has decided to act.

We believe the McCanns have become too cumbersome for any political party, so if David Cameron won’t solve it when in power, who will follow him will.

If he doesn’t, he will have missed the opportunity and will go into history alongside Gordon Brown as an enabler of this scandal.

The good thing is that things seem to be really confused on the other side of the fence. The tailors cannot agree who will be exposed and who will remain safe.

It’s said that there are only 2 things certain in life: death and taxes.

We would like to add another 2: the Sun going down at the end of each day and the Operation Grange having to reach some sort of conclusion.